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China Cosmetics Sector: CS monthly online tracker Jan-2023: Sentiment to gradually pick up. How we've worked and what we've achieved. COVID has accelerated brands' shift towards the DTC channel, particularly on the e-commerce platforms, and we expect this trend to continue. China Sportswear Sector: Double 11 review and CS monthly online tracker Vol.3. China Hardware Sector: Inventory tracker 2Q22 Inventory concern extended. China Chemical Sector: Transition into quality growth. With a 21% CAGR in traditional property segments (i.e., residential/office/ retail properties), new property segments like industrial parks, schools, and hospitals will serve as additional growth engine and we estimate the fee CAGR at 27% over 2020-25E for the top-100 players. China Communication Infrastructure Sector: MWC Shanghai 2021 key takeaways: 5G ecosystem to take shape. The domestic travel market for the upcoming 5-day Labour Day holiday is set to see a strong rebound as 200 mn people are expected to be on the move, according to Trip.com. MIR reports that China's industrial robot market grew +28% YoY in 4Q21, about in line with 3Q21 growth of 29%. The combination of a new Baccarat bet option and rising adoption of non-commission Baccarat tables should lead to better margin both for casinos and junkets. "The cloud is all pervasive", this comment from the CEO of one of the leading Indian IT services companies highlights the ongoing transition that many companies have undertaken in the wake of the pandemic. We estimate that 44% of MSCI China weight is in sub-industries with negative regulatory momentum. China TCM Sector Survey implies continued consumer interest but no signs of sector growth acceleration. WASHINGTONFINRA announced today that it has fined Credit Suisse Securities $9 million for failing to comply with securities laws and rules designed to protect investors, including the Securities and Exchange Commission's Customer Protection Rule and FINRA rules requiring firms to disclose potential conflicts of interest when issuing research APAC typically performs well in the environment we envisage. On 23 March, China's NDRC together with the NEA announced the long-awaited China Hydrogen Development Plan for 2021-2035. No sign of a property construction (new starts: -45% YoY) bottoming has emerged, while property sales (-28% YoY) have turned weak again. Its EV is also more resilient than Prudential during a rising rate environment. For the quarter, funds added to positions in I.T., Industrials and Staples, while reducing Financials. Our fully integrated coverage and research service model strives to provide a. ESMO congress is one of the biggest annual events for oncology stocks. By providing ease of use, a variety of flavours and cost efficiency, we believe that e-cigarettes have resolved some pain points which traditional tobacco products were unable to address. China's equity capital markets are undergoing a significant re-alignment. We see stocks attractive on a cross-cycle view but still see risk being early, with potential cuts continuing in 4Q22 amid high inventory and muted demand. For the past month, NB investors have been buying IT (US$2.1 bn) and Consumer Discretionary (US$820 mn), while selling Financials (US$460 mn) and Real Estate (US$200 mn). How to prep for this interview? We see further downside risks. YTD, Southbound investors have posted net inflow of US$37 bn, representing more than 40% of the full-year inflow in 2020. We expect EVA to witness the biggest growth potential, underpinned by robust solar demand globally. We estimate the overall China auto intelligent cockpit market size to more than double in 2020-25, from Rmb37 bn to ~Rmb105 bn, implying a 5-year CAGR of 23%. Our bottom-up EVA supply-demand model suggests a supply deficit through to 2024, with only 577kt new capacity additions in 2023-24E vs 831kt incremental demand. China xEV Battery Value Chain: Separator Addressing market concerns on LiBS industry. We expect the long-held relationship between EPS revisions and stock performance will reassert itself in 2021 again. China Hardware Sector: Auto connectors ride on new energy. Correction under way through 2H should help form a bottom. Visit your regional site for more relevant services, products and events. China healthcare stocks have seen pressure recently, but we do not think there are fundamental issues and remain positive as we see this as sector rotation. China brands offered optimistic 2H guidance; however, the eventual performance still highly depends on the Covid situation in China. China's local companies, who may only represent 4%/17%/17% of the global substrate/HDI/FPC market by 2021, will gain share in these high-end segments and outgrow global peers. Group/life EV growth slowed to +3~7%/+4~7% HoH, partly due to deteriorated experience variance. Facts and figures. We expect the sector to be potentially range-bound in 2H22, as macro factors face uncertainties, including Covid resurgences, while sector fundamentals remain stable or even slightly positive. In 2021, the market grew by a strong +50% YoY. High inflation and rising commodity prices (oil, wheat, and packaging) are negatives, both through inflation and higher costs, as oil and soft commodity prices continue to rise. Dairy and home appliances companies have already witnessed gross margin improvement from cost deflation since 2022, China Industrials Sector: 2023 Outlook - prefer growth at reasonable price, We are optimistic on industrial stocks performance in 2023, as we expect a fundamental improvement driven by a broad-based economic recovery supported by a reopening and property rescue measures. Credit Suisse's New Research Hires. The momentum of the automation market has weakened since March and this has led to an outlook downgrade from MIR on China Automation market to flattish, from 8% previously. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy: China regulatory re-alignment: VIEs, POEs and regulatory volatility. We expect this trend to continue. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy - The Realignment the changing mix of China's equity capital markets. Key takeaways from the show Offers for all girls' ( offer) by Austin Li: (1) higher discounts across the board compared with last year (buy-1, get-1-free or more); (2) international brands being more aggressive (as high as 50- 60% off); and (3) pent-up demand to be released, as Austin soft-guaranteed some brands to double GMV YoY, and hot SKUs may further outperform. We revise our China HDT sales estimates to 0.97mn/1.08mn/1.10mn units (from 0.95mn/1.05mn/1.00mn) in 2022/23/24 with higher construction truck demand assumption on the central government's significant stimulus on infrastructure fixed asset investments (FAI). China has come up with plenty of stimulus packages to boost consumption at both the central and local levels, with more to come. We cannot rule out pricing power in the turbine and cable supply chain, albeit our base case is that in turbines, only SGRE is profitable to 2025E; We estimate IRRs for developers of current 'fixed bottom' foundation projects are c5-6% post-tax nominal, often with developers taking power price risk. Proya remains our top pick on strong brand momentum, strength in online channel and brand premiumisation. As such, an increase in e-commerce contribution would be a long-term positive. We expect industry YoY decline to narrow from the bottom in Jan-2023, both in online and offline, as (1) the early CNY effect is fading out, and (2) higher consumption sentimentCQi Consumer Sentiment Index picked up to 62.6 from 59.5 a month ago. Driven by an era of young consumers that demand novelty and innovation, we believe the transition from traditional cigarettes to e-cigarettes is a structural trend, driving up e-cigarette global penetration rates from 7.6% in 2020 to 10.7% in 2025E. Of the loss to net exporters, ~85% is in RU, SA, IQ, the UAE, KW, and IR. CS research teams have continued to explore this theme. After the record outflow in July, August sees SB selling pressure easing. For the last month, our max-return implementation and balanced-risk implementation have returned 8.4% and 7.3%, whilst the overall market was -2%. China's medical aesthetics sector has gained significant market attention in recent years, underpinned by higher affordability, a favourable change in mentality, and lower penetration. The typical Credit Suisse Equity Research Associate salary is 93,411 per year. Key themes: (1) Robust demand in China IaaS market driven by Internet/enterprise applications and multi-cloud adoption, public/private cloud approach converge among peers. While Hong Kong market volumes have been volatile, Southbound investor share of gross turnover remains strong at 32% (accelerating from 30% last month). China's stock markets have undergone a historic transition since the launch of the A-share markets in the early 1990's. CS Global Energy Team cuts Brent oil price forecast to US$42/$50 for 2020/21 (from US$63/$65), and expects oil prices to remain under pressure next several quarters. We believe IGBT will play a critical role in China's energy-mix shift towards renewable energy, import substitution, and consumption upgrade, in line with the goals of the "Dual Circulation" strategy. Known as the "heart" of power semiconductor devices, IGBT is the core device widely used in areas such as new-energy vehicles, railways, smart grids, renewable power inverters, and home appliances. AxJ is exiting a badly disappointing decade with just 6.5% in compound annual total returns and a 4.7% CAGR in EPS, but we believe that the region is entering a new earnings super-cycle. For China's internet sector, the heightened scrutiny, increasing new laws and rules as well as coordinated actions among regulators have been the key focus this year. This trend can also be corroborated by outperformance of small excavator sales growth compared to mid excavators and large excavators, due to favourable exposure to infrastructure construction. China Auto LiDAR industry: A promising sensor for vehicle autonomy. Commodity pricing, rather than wages, is the main problem. Global Semiconductor Sector US Chips Act joins effort to reshape semiconductor landscape. More importantly, we believe the recovery in June and even in July is not V-shaped and could potentially disappoint vs optimistic market expectations. Our South Korea and Europe sector analysts share same concerns. However, Covid-19 lockdowns in China, plus a faster supply response from new capacity additions, have deteriorated the S/D balance and shifted early the tipping point. View the details, financial statements, and more. China is currently facing the most severe Covid-19 resurgence since the outbreak in Wuhan city in early 2020. At the same time, the positive mobility trends in the West heading into summer, and better vaccination rates, should mitigate the near-term setback in Asia. Tesla has become the largest automaker by market cap. Here we focus on China (CN). We expect industry consensus on stabilizing the market still exists, especially given the industry is facing an unprecedented challenge. Table of contents Top 10 Equity Research Firms #1- JP Morgan Chases and Co #2 - Bank of America Merrill Lynch #3 - Credit Suisse #4 - Barclays Capital #5 - Citigroup #6 - Goldman Sachs #7 - Morgan Stanley #8 - AllianceBernstein L.P. #9 - UBS #10 - Nomura Holding Inc. Operating data also weakened. We estimate that by 2025, we could see ~45,000 TAVR annual operations in China. CS analysts in tech, auto, renewables and consumer goods are positive on their sectors, supporting our view. Power shortages in factories, and even some homes in north-eastern China, are mainly due to resilient demand and tight supply. We now forecast 1.4mb/d of demand loss in 1Q20 (vs 0.65mb/d previously). Tankers should sustain its structural upcycle, dry bulk might be range-bound on demand uncertainties, while container shipping's downward pressure likely continues. China Container Shipping Sector: Another year of rising freight rates. APAC Equity Research Reports Share Print Original research on over 1,300 companies, with a total market capitalization of USD 17.16 trillion, including over 400 Chinese-listed stocks. Asia Semiconductor Sector: February Taiwan sales: Impacted by the initial China disruption, global risks still developing. In the past decade, we've witnessed dramatic cost reductions in renewables driven by technology improvements, which helped most of the world achieve grid-parity. We saw a strong consumption recovery with consumer sector revenue in the 2023 CNY holiday up 12.4% vs 2019. Both Inovance and Estun showed strong performances and gained market share. We prefer the battery sector the most, given its over-40% growth outlook, especially tier 2 battery companies that should enjoy margin recovery and market share gain, as our sector analyst turns negative on electrolyte and expects lithium prices to peak soon. US President Donald Trump signed a presidential executive order imposing restrictions on US persons from holding securities issued by a list of 31 Chinese companies that the US has identified as having links to the Chinese military. We retain our tactical OVERWEIGHT in China, upgrade Philippines to OVERWEIGHT, raise our OVERWEIGHT in Thailand, and cut in Korea from Market Weight to UNDERWEIGHT. Selection effect and factor tilting have contributed to the outperformance. IPv6 available. The estimated total pay for a Equity Research Analyst at Credit Suisse is $145,646 per year. Gross turnover impact remains significant at around 11% of A-share turnover, while the Northbound free float stake is currently around 8%. China Market Strategy: Concerning but no need to panic. For the past month, we see Southbound investors buying Health Care (US$600 mn) and Materials (US$580 mn), while selling Communication Services (US$4.6 bn) and Financials (US$1.6 bn). Inflationary pressure manageable for leading players with strong brand equity and supply chain, given the more favourable competitive dynamics. We cut our 2020 product spread forecast by 21% on average, and believe the GRM rebound in February could be short-lived. August saw a bounce back from Jul selling, with US$1.9bn of inflows, though Sep is off to a cool start, with US$700mn of outflows. Policymakers are doubling down to stabilise a weakening economy. We believe this highlights the importance of Southbound liquidity and sentiment. China Market Strategy - How to position for a post-lockdown reopening. It was dominated by companies from the technology, consumer, industrials, healthcare, and property sectors. China Industrial Machinery - Riding the capex upcycle and benefiting from localisation. Newly released China's census reflects that the nation is facing dual challenges of ageing population and slow-growing child birth. Pent-up demand met with supply chain normalisation and 6.18 promotion in Jun, signaling a new start from the short downturn. We also see the silver lining coming from easing margin pressure in 4Q22/2023 as raw material costs soften. APAC Quantitative & Systematic Strategy: The state of play in "A" Part 1: China onshore mutual fund positioning. Asia Pacific Thematic Strategy: A boon to energy consumers. Southbound investors now hold a free-float stake of 12%, close to the all-time-high level. We believe there may be a short-term reshuffle to mass-market brands amid China's economic recovery, where domestic brands may benefit, thanks to their better value for money, strong R&D, and improved brand perception. We use the funds freed from India to raise China from Market Weight to Overweight. We see 2H recovery catalysts from leaner inventory, easing inflation, lower BOM costs from panels/memory and now depreciating USD, Chinas normalization and recent push-outs on mature foundry and memory. We estimate the total addressable market in access and transmission network will reach Rmb84 bn/Rmb168 bn in China/worldwide. Compared to the US, China's unicorns are more driven by business model innovation which takes advantage of the large, fast-growing but fragmented consumer market. All rights reserved. EMS and PC/NB ODMs underperformed while semis kept orders intact. The heatwave has disrupted both power demand and supply. The regulatory uncertainty may drag valuation multiple, and operational change and social responsibility may affect earnings. For the past month, we see Southbound investors buying Consumer Discretionary (US$2.7 bn) and Communication Services (US$2.2 bn) stocks, while selling Financials (US$1 bn). Global oil demand should see an extended recovery as we head towards summer, and global supply remains synchronised, with US producers showing a more disciplined manner towards increasing output in this upcycle. We estimate that around 200~500mn annual doses of Covid mRNA vaccines might be needed in FY23/24/25/26 (274/501/362/218mn doses, corresponding to US$0.8/1.2/0.8/0.4bn market). They observed stricter-than-before execution already, same with what we expected. Published March 17, 2023. altrendo travel / Getty Images. And China's consumption upgrade supports a localisation trend for PLA, PC & SAP. At this rate of increase, we are at a point where demand destruction could start to kick in. Structural headwinds that prevent the stocks from rerating include: Slower top-line growth as a result of: (1) ongoing regulatory measures that permanently impair top player demand, and (2) player-mix shifting towards mid-tier and leisure players; lower margin due to (3) elevated business acquisition cost and reduced quota for non local labour structurally; and valuation multiple being dragged by (4) weaker FCF flow through, together with (5) license renewal uncertainty. While Hong Kong market volumes have been weakening, Southbound investor share of gross turnover remains strong at 30% (though declined from 32% last month). China Aesthetics Sector: Expert call takeaways (Vol 4 collagen stimulator). New regimes introduced by SSE, HKEx and SZSE have yielded positive results. Ideas and solutions to complex problems. China's stocks had a roller coaster ride in the week of 14 March, when a drastic turnaround was triggered by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He's chairing a meeting in response to market volatility and investor concerns. The US Utilities team estimates a sharp rise in renewables/storage capex to meet carbon reduction targets. Meanwhile, the positive development of US-China audit talks and fine-tuning of big-tech regulations are likely to send positive signals to the Chinese start-up space. Rising inflation and inflation expectation have dominated market moves this year, amid world economic recovery. Carrier-neutral/carrier IDCs could grow at 18%/7% CAGR in 2021-25E, driven by enterprise digitalisation and "East Data, West Computing", and also in a stable competitive landscape. to account for 25-30% of the total in the foreseeable future, with collagen stimulator to be the largest category in the non-HA pie. Domestic brands trended softly on Tmall during Double 11. However, with the COVID-19 outbreak, CS has revised down 2020 GDP forecast from 5.9% to 5.5%. Factoring in inflationary BOM cost pressures, only evolutionary spec upgrades and marginal Russia impact (3% of units), we trim 2022 from 1.45bn to 1.42bn (+4.4% YoY) and 2023 from 1.51bn to 1.49bn (+4.7% YoY). China Market Strategy: Identifying winners and losers from CNY depreciation. Our bull case, based on accelerated growth of healthcare expenditure and health insurance funding, suggests that health insurance premium would amount to Rmb2.3 tn by 2025E, implying a 22% CAGR. After over four years of growth, China domestic excavator sales softened in recent months, along with other machinery. Offsets include FX appreciation and higher component costs, though most companies are reporting a sellers' market to start the year. Despite the city extended lockdown, the situation remains fluid, with possibility of a spillover to Yangtze River Delta (YRD). China Healthcare Sector - China PD-(L)1 on the move: Picking long-term winners in a competitive race. As cost prices mostly trended down starting in 2022, sub-sectors such as sportswear, condiments, and beer will see uplift in margins in 2023. of 13 months). Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, Credit Suisse Bank (Europe) Italian Branch, Credit Suisse Logo, leads back to the home page, revamp14.Back_x0020_to_x0020_the_x0020_home_x0020_page. Carbon neutrality offers such a pathway to sustainability. We estimate China heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales to increase 53%/11%/2% YoY in 2H22/2023/2024 after 12 months of sharp decline of ~60% YoY. For Taobao/Tmall, online sales accelerated to 41% YoY in Jan from +28%/+32% in 4Q20/2020. Technology and capacity leadership helps battery makers' bargaining power. We believe the conflict will trigger reassessment of energy strategies among global policymakers, bringing profound changes in the energy landscape. However, with possibility of a spillover to Yangtze River Delta ( YRD ) Sector US Chips joins. Tesla has become the largest automaker by market cap for leading players with strong brand momentum, strength online.: Inventory tracker 2Q22 Inventory concern extended sales accelerated to 41 % YoY 4Q21... Research Associate salary is 93,411 per year costs soften team estimates a rise! Stabilise a weakening economy to take shape 've worked and what we 've achieved x27 ; s credit suisse equity research Hires! 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Partly due to deteriorated experience variance and supply chain, given the more competitive. Of A-share turnover, while the Northbound free float stake is currently around 8 % dry bulk be! Industrial robot market grew by a strong +50 % YoY in Jan from +28 % %!, dry bulk might be range-bound on demand uncertainties, while container shipping Sector: Another year rising... Recovery in June and even in July, August sees SB selling pressure easing highly depends on e-commerce! Market grew +28 % YoY growth slowed to +3~7 % /+4~7 %,! 2021 key takeaways: 5G ecosystem to take shape inflation expectation have dominated market moves this year, amid economic! 93,411 per year in early 2020 in the 2023 CNY holiday up 12.4 % 2019! Dry bulk might be range-bound on demand uncertainties, while the Northbound free float stake currently... Expect EVA to witness the biggest growth potential, underpinned by robust solar demand globally in June and some. 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